
version 8.0 
log using electoral.log, replace
 #delimit ;

*     ***************************************************************** *;
*     ***************************************************************** *;
*       File-Name:      electoral_pres.do                               *;
*       Date:           18/5/05                                         *;
*       Author:         MRG                                             *;
*       Purpose:        Do-file to replicate results for AJPS version   *;
*                       of presidential candidates paper where          *;
*                       dependent variable is electoral parties.        *;
*                       Results for Table 1. Also provides second half  *;
*                       of the Afghanistan example.                     *;
*       Input File:     legislative_newp.dta                            *;
*       Output File:    electoral.log                                   *;
*       Data Output:    None                                            *;
*       Previous file:                                                  *;
*       Machine:        Home                                            *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

set mem 10m;
set matsize 150;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*       First, do Amorim Neto and Cox in the 1980s                      *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

use c:\ajps\coxappend.dta;

regress enpv proximit enpres proxpres eneth lnml lmleneth if drop==0, robust;

clear;

use c:\ajps\legislative_newp.dta;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*                           Summary Statistics                          *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

sum;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*       Note that observations on fractionalization do not equal the    *;
*       number of observations on eneg. This is because Papua New       *;
*       Guinea is coded as missing for eneg since there is perfect      *;
*       fractionalization.  This is based on Fearon's dataset.          *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*                    Relabel and Define Variables                       *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

label var country  "countryname";
label var newdem "first election as new democracy";
label var countrynumber "countrynumber";
label var year "year";
label var regime "regime as of 31 December of given year 0=democracy 1=dictatorship";
label var regime_leg "regime type at time of legislative election 0 = democracy 1=dictatorship";
label var legelec "legislative election";
label var preselec "presidential election";
label var eighties "election in 1980s closest to 1985";
label var old "elections in countries that did not transition to democracy in 1990s";
label var nineties "elections in 1990s closest to 1995";
label var proximity1 "proximity - continuous";
label var proximity2 "proximity - dichotomous";
label var enpp "parliamentary parties - uncorrected";
label var enpp1 "parliamentary parties - corrected";
label var enep "electoral parties - uncorrected";
label var enep1 "electoral parties - corrected";
label var enpres "effective number of presidential candidates";
label var seats "assembly size";
label var districts "number of electoral districts";
label var avemag "average district magnitude";
label var medmag "median district magnitude";
label var upperseats "number of uppertier seats";
label var uppertier "percentage of uppertier seats";
label var eneg "effective number of ethnic groups  fearon";

describe;


*     ****************************************************************  *;
*       Would like to drop countries that have no recognizable parties  *;
*       since I am interested in determining the number of parties.     *;
*       Drop Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Nauru, Palau,      *;
*       Lebanon (at least no votes by party), Kyrgzstan.                *;
*       Since I am interested in competitive elections I drop the       *;
*       elections that occurred in Colombia between 1958 and 1970 due   *;
*       to a constitutional agreement to share power between the        *;
*       conservative and liberal parties.                               *;
*       Also drop the Congolese elections of 1963.  Although there were *;
*       multiple parties permitted, all candidates ran on a single list.*;
*       Thus, there was no actual competition in this election.         *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

drop if countrynumber==163;
drop if countrynumber==165;
drop if countrynumber==197;
drop if countrynumber==189;
drop if countrynumber==146;
drop if countrynumber==198;
drop if countrynumber==167;
drop if countrynumber==70 & year==1958;
drop if countrynumber==70 & year==1960;
drop if countrynumber==70 & year==1962;
drop if countrynumber==70 & year==1964;
drop if countrynumber==70 & year==1966;
drop if countrynumber==70 & year==1968;
drop if countrynumber==70 & year==1970;
drop if countrynumber==12 & year==1963;

sum;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*       Does it matter if I use avemag instead of medmag?               *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

correlate avemag medmag;
correlate avemag medmag if avemag~=1;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*       Correlation is extremely high in both cases i.e. greater than   *;
*       99%.                                                            *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*       Generate interaction variables ready for regressions.           *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

generate logmag=ln(avemag);
generate uppertier_eneg = uppertier*eneg;
generate logmag_eneg = logmag*eneg;
generate proximity1_enpres = proximity1*enpres;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*       Need to drop elections that use a fused vote in legislative     *;
*       and presidential elections.                                     *;
*       Drop Bolivia, Uruguay, Honduras up to and including the 1993    *;
*       elections, Guatemala elections in 1990 (fused vote with         *;
*       national district), Dominican Republic elections in 1966, 1970, *;
*       1974 and 1986.                                                  *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

drop if countrynumber==67;
drop if countrynumber==76;
drop if countrynumber==59 & year==1957;
drop if countrynumber==59 & year==1971;
drop if countrynumber==59 & year==1985;
drop if countrynumber==59 & year==1989;
drop if countrynumber==59 & year==1993;
drop if countrynumber==57 & year==1990;
drop if countrynumber==54 & year==1966;
drop if countrynumber==54 & year==1970;
drop if countrynumber==54 & year==1974;
drop if countrynumber==54 & year==1986;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*       Drop those countries where enep1 others are greater than 15% of *;
*       the vote or seats.                                              *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

sum;

drop if enep_others>15 & enep_others<100;

sum;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*       This drops 29 elections.  However, only 18 of these have        *;
*       complete data on all of the variables.  There would have been   *;
*       621 observations in the pooled model, but now there are only    *;
*       603. Thus, I am dropping 2.9% of the sample.                    *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

             
*     ****************************************************************  *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;
*               So, now let's run stuff                                 *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;
*                               1980s                                   *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

regress enep1  proximity1 enpres proximity1_enpres logmag  eneg logmag_eneg if eighties==1, robust;


*     ****************************************************************  *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;
*                               1990s                                   *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

regress enep1  proximity1 enpres proximity1_enpres logmag  eneg logmag_eneg if nineties==1, robust;

regress enep1  proximity1 enpres proximity1_enpres logmag  eneg logmag_eneg if nineties==1 & old==1, robust;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*        So, now let's look at pooled model                             *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

regress enep1 proximity1 enpres proximity1_enpres eneg logmag logmag_eneg, robust cluster(country);

regress enep1 proximity1 enpres proximity1_enpres eneg logmag logmag_eneg if old==1, robust cluster(country);

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*                               Afghanistan Example                     *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

regress enep1 enpres proximity1 proximity1_enpres eneg logmag logmag_eneg if old==1, robust;

matrix b=e(b);
matrix V=e(V);
scalar b1=b[1,1];
scalar b3=b[1,3];

scalar varb1=V[1,1];
scalar varb3=V[3,3];
scalar covb1b3=V[1,3];

scalar list b1 b3 varb1 varb3 covb1b3;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*       Shifting to plurality rule would reduce the effective number of *;
*       presidential candidates by 1.7712361 - see pres_runoff.do       *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

gen afghan= 1.7712361*(b1+b3*1);

display afghan;

gen afghanse = 1.7712361*(sqrt(varb1+varb3*1^2+2*covb1b3*1));

display afghanse;

gen afghanci_upper=afghan+ afghanse*1.96;

display afghanci_upper;

gen afghanci_lower=afghan-afghanse*1.96;

display afghanci_lower;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*       Thus, shifting to plurality rule would reduce the effective     *;
*       number of electoral parties by 1.97 [1.59, 2.34].               *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

*     ****************************************************************  *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;
*                                   THE END                             *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;
*     ****************************************************************  *;

exit;
